Poetic Portfolios

I am venturing into the wreckage here, looking for the undamaged or slightly dinged. I’ve been down this road before. Drawn to their high yield, I was nibbling at Thornburg Mortgage (NYSE: TMA) last summer when the credit crisis was just beginning. After the first round of dilution to meet a margin call, I determined the yield was just not going to be there and sold. Lucky me, I only lost 50% on that “investment.” More painful has been my investment in First Marblehead (NYSE: FMD), a company totally blindsided by the credit crisis. I have yet to introduce the portolio where these investments occurred, but trust me when I say that I approach my look at CapitalSource (NYSE: CSE) with great trepidation. Read the rest of this entry »

The first quarter of the Against the Sky Portfolio is now complete, so it’s time to review the progress of the portfolio. The major goals of the portfolio are 1) preservation of capital, 2) Diversification, 3) Income, and 4) Growth. One of the major challenges of this portfolio at the outset is carefully investing the cash at good value points.  Below is a table summarizing returns and the allocation of capital relative to the portfolio’s target allocation. Read the rest of this entry »

Jupitermedia (NASD: JUPM) just reported their full year and fiscal fourth quarter 2007 results. The company reported a slight revenue increase in 2007, but earnings per share came in at a negative $2.13 per share. This earnings number is discouraging and a bit misleading. Excluding their one-time charges and non-cash items, their earnings for the year would have been $0.06 per share. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s official. Bear Stearns is being bought out by JP Morgan for $2 per share, or $236 million. The stock traded as high as $159 per share with a market capitalization of over $21 billion as recently as last spring. Their last quarterly earnings release indicated that the company had total shareholder equity of $11.8 billion. Read the rest of this entry »

As I mentioned in a previous article, Middleby reported impressive fourth quarter results. Earnings per share increased 32.8% to $0.89 in the fourth quarter of 2007 as compared to $0.67 in the fourth quarter of 2006. For the full year, earnings per share increased 21.0% to $3.11 in 2007 from $2.57 in 2006. Net sales rose 48.1% in the 2007 fourth quarter and 24.1% for the full year. The net sales increase reflects the impact of several acquisitions that were made during the year. Excluding the impact of acquisitions, sales organically grew 11.9% in the 2007 fourth quarter and 5.7% for the full year. Read the rest of this entry »

Middleby just reported their fourth quarter 2007 results. Net sales grew 24.1% for the full year, and earnings per share grew 21.0% year over year. In my previous valuation, I had assumed 15% earnings growth, which yielded an intrinsic value of $94 per share. Based on these results, I look forward to seeing what shares are worth now. Apparently the future is still bright for Middleby.

Disclosure: Long Middleby

Ctrip just reported their fourth quarter earnings. They beat analyst estimates by $0.06 per share, and outpaced my growth projections. I thought they represented a good value before this announcement. Now I’m looking forward to crunching these numbers and updating my models to determine a new range of values.

Disclosure: Long Ctrip

The first quarter results from Oyo Geospace (NASD: OYOG) were pretty disappointing. Quarter over quarter growth was negative after the company reported $0.60 per share in earnings in their fourth quarter (excluding one-time items), earnings fell to $0.54 per share in their first quarter of 2008. There were no RCS contract announcements, and the move to their new 170,000 square foot facility is still on-going. Read the rest of this entry »

As I mentioned in a previous post, I think a disciplined investor should focus on earnings and intrinsic values rather than market quotes. So it is because of their recently reported earnings that I am disappointed with Dawson Geophysical (NASD: DWSN). After last quarter, I estimated full year proforma earnings for Dawson prior to adding their 15th crew. I expected that after having a full quarter with 15 crews that I would once again have to revise my estimates upward. It turns out that the opposite is true. Read the rest of this entry »

ADP continued their strong performance as a company in their fiscal second quarter of 2008, posting 15% year-over-year revenue growth and 22% earnings growth from continuing operations. In addition, ADP guided to 12-13% revenue growth, and 18-21% diluted earnings per share growth in 2008. The market is certainly not pricing the company as if it expects these targets to be achieved. ADP also continues to pay a $0.29 per share dividend per quarter. That’s over a 3% dividend yield. Read the rest of this entry »