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	<title>Comments on: Analysis of Oyo Geospace</title>
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	<link>http://www.poeticportfolios.com/?p=11</link>
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		<title>By: Poetic Portfolios &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Oyo Geospace First Quarter 2008 Analysis and Valuation</title>
		<link>http://www.poeticportfolios.com/?p=11&#038;cpage=1#comment-138</link>
		<dc:creator>Poetic Portfolios &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Oyo Geospace First Quarter 2008 Analysis and Valuation</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Feb 2008 04:38:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.poeticportfolios.com/?p=11#comment-138</guid>
		<description>[...] baseline earnings as calculated in December are still relevant for Oyo Geospace. I have included them [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] baseline earnings as calculated in December are still relevant for Oyo Geospace. I have included them [...]</p>
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		<title>By: investorpoet</title>
		<link>http://www.poeticportfolios.com/?p=11&#038;cpage=1#comment-11</link>
		<dc:creator>investorpoet</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Jan 2008 13:59:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.poeticportfolios.com/?p=11#comment-11</guid>
		<description>Thanks for the comment, Amit.

There are many different ways of assembling a discounted cash flow of future earnings. Sometimes you will see an analyst use one growth rate for five or ten years and then a &quot;terminal&quot; growth rate going out 30 years.

I would rather keep control of that &quot;terminal&quot; growth. I assume that I sell the company after a certain length of time. To determine the value upon sale, I assume here that I can sell Oyo for 1.5 times its growth rate. So I&#039;m applying 1.5 times 12%, then multiplying this by 100. This then equals the P/E ratio of 18. I multiply year 10 earnings by 18 to get a market capitalization. Above I am working in per share amounts, so I multiply year 10 earnings per share by 18. This then becomes added to year 10 of the cash flows. I discount the cash flows back at 10% for $95.70 per share.

The $178.30 value is not discounted. So it is possible that Oyo would be worth $178 in 2018. Still you wouldn&#039;t pay $178 today, so you discount it back. I hope that makes some sense.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks for the comment, Amit.</p>
<p>There are many different ways of assembling a discounted cash flow of future earnings. Sometimes you will see an analyst use one growth rate for five or ten years and then a &#8220;terminal&#8221; growth rate going out 30 years.</p>
<p>I would rather keep control of that &#8220;terminal&#8221; growth. I assume that I sell the company after a certain length of time. To determine the value upon sale, I assume here that I can sell Oyo for 1.5 times its growth rate. So I&#8217;m applying 1.5 times 12%, then multiplying this by 100. This then equals the P/E ratio of 18. I multiply year 10 earnings by 18 to get a market capitalization. Above I am working in per share amounts, so I multiply year 10 earnings per share by 18. This then becomes added to year 10 of the cash flows. I discount the cash flows back at 10% for $95.70 per share.</p>
<p>The $178.30 value is not discounted. So it is possible that Oyo would be worth $178 in 2018. Still you wouldn&#8217;t pay $178 today, so you discount it back. I hope that makes some sense.</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Amit</title>
		<link>http://www.poeticportfolios.com/?p=11&#038;cpage=1#comment-10</link>
		<dc:creator>Amit</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Jan 2008 05:53:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.poeticportfolios.com/?p=11#comment-10</guid>
		<description>Hi, 

Nice Analysis!  I am trying to understand you mean by a reversionary PEG of 1.5 times growth rate and how do you come up with Revesion value of 178.30 $.  Your answer is appreciated. 

Thanks</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi, </p>
<p>Nice Analysis!  I am trying to understand you mean by a reversionary PEG of 1.5 times growth rate and how do you come up with Revesion value of 178.30 $.  Your answer is appreciated. </p>
<p>Thanks</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Poetic Portfolios &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Potential Purchase of Oyo Geospace</title>
		<link>http://www.poeticportfolios.com/?p=11&#038;cpage=1#comment-7</link>
		<dc:creator>Poetic Portfolios &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Potential Purchase of Oyo Geospace</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Jan 2008 13:27:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.poeticportfolios.com/?p=11#comment-7</guid>
		<description>[...] Oyo Geospace (NASD: OYOG) over the past couple of days decline to the low 60s. As noted in my previous post about Oyo, a price of $69 per share represents 12% earnings growth over the next 10 years. I think [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Oyo Geospace (NASD: OYOG) over the past couple of days decline to the low 60s. As noted in my previous post about Oyo, a price of $69 per share represents 12% earnings growth over the next 10 years. I think [...]</p>
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